At my Campaign Boot Camps, I start out with Muth’s Truths #1…
“It’s not the best candidate who wins, but the best campaign.”
Which brings me to this year’s March Madness and Friday’s Yale vs. Auburn basketball game. On paper, Auburn was clearly the better team. Auburn was seeded #4 and Yale #13.
Auburn, which won the SEC tournament a week ago, was a 13.5-point favorite. So Yale was a big underdog, and most people didn’t give them a chance. Yet Yale pulled off the upset, 78-76.
Indeed, you never know what’s gonna happen in a game. And big underdogs – who lose far more often than pulling off a miracle – need to be prepared to take advantage of opportunity knocking at the door.
That’s exactly what Yale did. It wasn’t the “best team” that won; it was the team with the best game plan that was fully prepared to pull a rabbit out of the hat.
In the opening minutes of the game, one of Auburn’s star players, Chad Baker-Mazara, was ejected from the game for a flagrant foul. Had he not been ejected, the outcome could have easily gone the other way.
There’s a lesson here for candidates who are similarly considered underdogs to a “better” candidate/opponent – especially if you’re running against an incumbent. As in sports, you never know when an unforeseen change in the race will give you an opportunity to pull off a major upset.
Catching Lightning in a Bottle
Like Yale, your underdog campaign needs to be prepared to take immediate advantage of an opportunity – such as your opponent unexpectedly being whistled for a foul or scandal of some kind.
In politics, such an opportunity is often described as an “October Surprise.”
Hearken back, dear readers to the Trump vs. Hillary presidential campaign of 2016 – in which Trump was considered a huge underdog (the New York Times gave Clinton an 85% chance of winning) – as reported by the BBC…
“In a bombshell announcement on 28 October, the FBI said it had found new emails that ‘appeared to be pertinent’ to its investigation. The emails, including some from top Clinton aide Huma Abedin, were found on a laptop belonging to her estranged husband, former congressman Anthony Weiner.
“The revelation angered the Clinton campaign, and Mr. Comey came under fire from some Democrats for allegedly interfering in the election. Donald Trump, meanwhile, seized on the news to accuse Mrs Clinton of grand corruption.
“Did Comey's late intervention swing the election? Mrs Clinton thinks so, citing it as a major factor in her surprise defeat. Political analyst Nate Silver agrees, saying it ‘probably’ cost the former first lady a return to the White House as president.”
Will such an opportunity to turn a lemon into lemonade present itself in your race?
Sure, the odds are against it. But if it does, will your campaign be ready to take advantage?
That’s up to you.
- Build your email list so you can quickly share unexpected opportunities with your supporters.
- Build your phone list – especially opted-in cell phones where you can text supporters.
- Build your social media “followers” list.
- Make sure you have a BLOG page on your website where you can post new and updated information about your campaign online.
And remember, you don’t need to match your opponent dollar-for-dollar. You just need to raise enough money to execute your WRITTEN campaign plan and be ready to immediately seize any unexpected opportunity if it presents itself.
And maybe, just maybe, you’ll have your own Cinderella Story to tell this year.