Business marketing and copywriting legend Dan Kennedy asks clients…
“Why should I, your prospect, choose to do business with you versus any and every other option – including doing nothing?”
The same question needs to be asked of voters…
Why should a person vote for you versus any and every other candidate on the ballot – including doing nothing by staying home and not casting a ballot at all?
When it comes to partisan voters, the question isn’t so difficult.
The vast majority of Republicans (85-90 percent) will vote for a Republican candidate versus a Democrat candidate, and the vast majority of Democrats will vote for a Democrat candidate versus a Republican candidate.
If you’re a Republican running in a Republican district – you’re probably fine (unless we’re talking about a primary). But if you’re in a “swing” district or a Democrat-majority district, things get a bit dicier.
So let me ask you this: In the district where you’re running, how many Republicans did not vote in the last election?
This is a critical number in your “path to victory” statement developed in conjunction with your written campaign plan.
Once someone has made up their mind, it’s near impossible to change it. If they’ve registered “R” or “D” they are likely to vote for the “R” or “D” on the ballot no matter who it is – especially in down-ballot and local races.
Now get this: Most non-partisan and independent voters already LEAN one way or the other towards “R” and “D.” And contrary to popular opinion, most aren’t necessarily leaning “R.”
Independents, overall, tend to lean in the same direction as the majority of partisans in the district. So if you’re running in a “D” district, most indies are probably also leaning in that direction.
As for independents who are truly independent and not leaning one way or the other – a small fraction of around 10 percent according to a PEW study – they don’t generally have any real interest in politics at all and are unlikely to show up at the polls.
Still, your strategic campaign plan must include tactics designed to reach out to this critical mass of voters who may be persuadable to your campaign. But more importantly…
If they’re a registered “R” but haven’t been showing up at the polls, it’s far easier (and better) to focus on mobilizing them and getting them to vote – since they’re far more likely to vote “R” – than persuading the unpersuadable and disinterested to cast their ballot your way.
If you’re running in an upside-down district, you already know your prospect of winning is a longshot. However, with a serious, organized, and ruthlessly implemented mobilization plan for non-voting Republicans, you just might catch lightning in a bottle.
How do you do that?
First Step: Order a copy of “Get Out the Vote: How to Increase Voter Turnout (Fourth Edition)” by Donald P. Green and Alan S. Gerber. As the authors write in their introduction…
“The ability to mobilize supporters can be decisive in close elections, and close elections are plentiful.”
Their research is summed up thusly…
“The more personal the interaction between campaign and potential voter, the more it raises a person’s chances of voting. Door-to-door canvassing by enthusiastic volunteers is the gold-standard mobilization tactic; chatty, unhurried phone calls seem to work well, too. Automatically dialed, pre-recorded GOVT phone calls, by contrast, are utterly impersonal and rarely get people to vote.”
That’s not to say robocalls don’t have a place in your campaign. They likely do. But not when it comes to lighting a fire under the butts of voters who are registered to vote but historically don’t exercise their right.
They require a more personal touch.
Waiting until next fall to start communicating with non-voting Republicans will likely be too late. But here’s the good news: It’s still February. So no time like the present to get the ball rolling!